Arctic Sea Ice Concentration for SSP1-2.6

Even for the optimistic scenario SSP1-2.6 ("2 degree target"), the ensemble simulation with MPI-ESM HR initially shows a decrease in sea ice cover in the Arctic. However, in summer (September), according to this simulation, sea ice could even be expected to recover somewhat towards the end of the century (white area). Sea ice cover in winter (March) would also not decrease as much as in the other, more pessimistic scenarios, as shown by the light blue area.

Video: Temporal evolution of Arctic sea ice cover in September (white) and in March (light blue) for scenario SSP1-2.6 based on simulations with MPI-ESM HR. With this model only one realization was calculated for SSP1-2.6, therefore the visualization shows a very high variability from year to year.