Arctic Sea Ice Concentration for SSP5-8.5

For the pessimistic scenario SSP 5-8.5 ("No further climate protection measures"), the ensemble simulation with MPI-ESM LR shows a significant and rapid decline in sea ice cover in the Arctic. In summer (September), sea ice would be expected to melt completely (disappearing white area) starting around 2060. In winter (March), however, as the light blue area shows, new ice would form again - albeit to a reduced extent.

Video: Temporal evolution of Arctic sea ice cover in September (white) and in March (light blue) for the pessimistic scenario SSP5-8.5 based on simulations with MPI-ESM LR (ensemble means, 10 realizations).