Video 1: Course of the temperature changes projected for the "1.5°C scenario" SSP1-1.9. This scenario was simulated by only a subset of the models, so the signal-to-noise ratio here is less good. But although the projected temperature change in the global mean here is only an additional warming of about 0.5 degrees C compared to the 1995-2014 reference period, the typical warming pattern can be seen despite the stronger climate noise.
Video 2: Course of temperature changes projected for the "2°C scenario" SSP1-2.6. This scenario corresponds approximately to the CMIP5 scenario RCP2.6. Compared to the simulation for SSP1-1.9 shown above, one can see a more pronounced warming.
Video 3: Temporal development of temperature changes projected for the medium scenario SSP2-4.5. This scenario is roughly equivalent to the CMIP5 scenario RCP4.5 and assumes stabilization of CO2 concentrations at somewhat higher levels, resulting in a 4.5 W/m2 increase in radiative forcing over pre-industrial levels. On the continents, warming clearly exceeds 2°C by the end of the century.
Video 4: Course of temperature changes projected for the moderately pessimistic scenario SSP3-7.0. This scenario lies in the middle to upper range of the bandwidth of all scenarios with 7 W/m² in 2100.
Video 5: Temporal development of temperature changes projected for the pessimistic scenario SSP5-8.5. This scenario is roughly equivalent to the CMIP5 scenario RCP8.5 and marks the upper edge of the range of plausible scenarios. Large parts of the continents warm by more than 5°C by the end of the century - a temperature level not seen on Earth in the last few million years!
Visualization: Michael Böttinger, DKRZ
Data preparation: Axel Lauer und Veronika Eyring, DLR
Literature: Tebaldi et al. 2021, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, 2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021