Simulations of Climate Change for IPCC AR4
Precipitaion
Due to climate change, the cycle of precipitation and evaporation is going to be intensified. Within the next hundred years, the global mean precipitation might increase by several percent. For scenario A1B for example, our simulations show an increase of approximately 7 percent until 2100. The spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall, though, is also going to change: increases are shown with red colors, decreases are shown in blue.
In order to evaluate the simulated percentual precipitation changes for January and July shown above, it might be helpul to know the "normal" mean rainfall in the different regions in the respective seasons. The following images and the animation show at the same time the simulated precipitation for 1961-1990 and the changes at the end of this century simulated for IPCC scenario A1B.
|
The simulated mean precipitation over land in the summer season (June, July, August) for the period 1961-1990 is shown by the height of the bars. The percentual changes of the mean precipitation for scenario A1B, simulated for 2070-2100, is given by the colors. (JPEG, 130 kB). |
|
The simulated mean precipitation over land in the winter season (December, January, February) for the period 1961-1990 is shown by the height of the bars. The percentual changes of the mean precipitation for scenario A1B, simulated for 2070-2100, is shown by the colors. (JPEG, 130 kB). |
|
This animation shows the simulated "normal" monthly precipitation during the term of a year, being visualised by the height of the bars.The percentual changes of the mean precipitation for scenario A1B, simulated for 2070-2100, are shown by the colors. (MPEG, 2.7 MB). |
It can be expected, that a strong decrease of the precipitation (yellow to red) will have a strong impact on the vegetation and on the agriculture, especially in areas with naturally little preciptation (short bars).
Visualisation: Michael Boettinger, DKRZ